Fuente: © World Bank
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Bird Flu Might Be More Common, But Less Deadly: Report

/noticias.info/ As bird flu cases rise in a worrisome way in Turkey, new research offers a bit of hope - it's likely that many people who get it don't become seriously ill and quickly recover, reports The Associated Press.

Although not definitive, the new study, published Monday in The Archives of Internal Medicine, suggests the virus is more widespread than thought. But it also probably doesn't kill half its victims, a fear based solely on flu cases that have been officially confirmed. "The results suggest that the symptoms most often are relatively mild and that close contact is needed for transmission to humans," wrote Anna Thorson of Karolinska University Hospital in Stockholm and colleagues who conducted the study.

The Guardian (UK) writes that the study of more than 45,000 people in Vietnam, which has been struggling with an outbreak of the highly pathogenic H5N1 virus in poultry since late 2003, reveals that up to 750 people are very likely to have become infected with the strain after handling sick or ill birds. Thorson, who led the study, said the real figure potentially extended into the thousands. The cases were not picked up because, while people developed coughs and a fever, they either failed to seek medical care because their symptoms were mild, received treatment from unregistered practitioners or were missed by the doctors inspecting them.

Reuters notes that 11,942 households whose inhabitants were interviewed between April 1 and June 30, 2000 for the study are located in the rural district of Bavi. Subjects were asked about the occurrence of cough and fever during the previous six months as well as contact with poultry. Among young and middle-aged adults direct contact with such poultry more than doubled the risk of a flu-like illness.

The BBC (UK) adds that Professor Neil Ferguson, an infectious disease expert at Imperial College London, said there were some problems with the research and the indications were that the true level of under-reporting was likely to be lower. He noted that people who did develop flu-like symptoms were more likely to remember contact with dead birds because of the fear over bird flu.

The Financial Times (UK) writes that the Swedish researchers admit that their findings need to be confirmed by microbiological testing, to check whether people were actually infected with avian virus, before anyone concludes that bird flu is associated with a lot of mild human disease. If the conclusion is proved, it will not be unadulterated good news. While medical experts will be reassured to know that H5N1 infection in humans does not usually cause the serious and often fatal disease suggested by the World Health Organization figures, more widespread infection of people means that a pandemic has a greater chance of starting, through genetic mixing of human and avian viruses.

In related news, The Associated Press writes that the temporary ban on exotic birds to the EU has shuttered the bird export industry in some of Africa's poorest countries, forcing traders to choose between feeding birds they might never sell, or letting their investment fly away. According to EU figures, Mali led the world in exporting exotic birds in the three-month period before the ban, with 75,538 shipped to EU countries. The top three exporters are all from Sub-Saharan Africa, with neighboring Guinea exporting 52,490 birds. Tanzania, on the other side of the continent, shipped 26,315.

Dow Jones further reports that the UN special coordinator for bird flu said Monday that the spread of the disease should be met with a mass public education program on what to do when birds start dying. "Do not play with them, do not touch them, leave them for the vets to dispose of and make sure that all the chickens in the area are killed quickly so that we do not have the unfortunate consequences we've had in Turkey," said David Nabarro.

Agence France Presse also adds that epidemiologists from EU member states are to meet this week in Luxembourg to review the spread of bird flu, the European Commission said Monday. At the meeting, to be held Thursday, the experts will "discuss coordination measures to be taken among member states, examine national plans and look at channels of communication."

The Financial Times finally reports that HSBC, the world’s third largest bank, is estimating that up to half of its staff could fall ill or be absent from work at the peak of the next flu pandemic, as Europe began to come to terms with the first human cases of the H5N1 bird flu virus on its doorstep. The 50 percent figure is double the rate forecast in draft guidelines for businesses being drawn up by the World Health Organization. They will advise planning for 25 percent absence, and the HSBC estimate is the most explicit warning yet that governments may be underestimating possible disruption. notas_de_prensa_archivo