Fuente : UK Government
http://www.open.gov.uk/

UK: INDEX OF PRODUCTION JUNE 2005

/noticias.info/
Coverage United Kingdom
Theme The Economy

In the second quarter of 2005, the seasonally adjusted chained volume index for the output of the production industries remained unchanged compared with the previous quarter.

Between May and June output of the manufacturing industries rose by 0.2 per cent (note that monthly growth rates are volatile, see background note 2). There were significant increases in output of 1.5 per cent in the food, drink and tobacco industries and 1.9 per cent in the chemicals and man-made fibres industries. The most significant decrease in output was 1.8 per cent in the transport equipment industries.

In the latest quarter, manufacturing output decreased by 0.3 per cent, mining and quarrying output increased by 1.1 per cent and output of the electricity, gas and water supply industries increased by 1.4 per cent, compared with the previous quarter.

First Release

Mining and quarrying

In the latest quarter, mining and quarrying output rose by 1.1 per cent compared with the previous quarter but was 7.5 per cent lower than the same period a year ago. Between May and June, mining and quarrying output decreased by 2.2 per cent due to a fall in oil and gas production.

Manufacturing

Manufacturing output in the latest quarter fell by 0.3 per cent compared with the previous quarter. There were significant decreases in output of 2.8 per cent in the pulp, paper, printing and publishing industries and 7.7 per cent in the coke, refined petroleum and nuclear fuel industries. There was a significant increase in output of 2.4 per cent in the food, drink and tobacco industries. Manufacturing output in the latest quarter was 1.2 per cent lower than the same period a year ago.

Electricity, gas and water supply

Output of the electricity, gas and water supply industries in the latest quarter rose by 1.4 per cent compared with the previous quarter. Between May and June, output increased by 0.5 per cent. In the latest quarter, output in this sector was 0.5 per cent higher compared to the same period a year ago.

Market sectors

In the latest quarter, output of the consumer durable goods industries fell by 0.4 per cent compared with the previous quarter and was 1.3 per cent lower than the same period a year ago.

Output in the consumer non-durable goods industries rose by 0.2 per cent in the latest quarter compared with the previous quarter but was 1.1 per cent lower than the same period a year ago.

In the latest quarter, output of the capital goods industries was flat compared with the previous quarter and was 0.5 per cent lower than in the same period a year ago.

Output in the intermediate goods and energy industries was flat in the latest quarter compared with the previous quarter and was 2.7 per cent lower than the same period a year ago.

Revisions

This release conforms to the standard revisions policy for National Accounts. In this release the periods open for revision are April and May 2005. Table IOP5AR shows the revisions to the estimates previously published on 6 July 2005.

Since last month a number of late responses have been received to the Monthly production Inquiry and provisional data from the Quarterly Stocks Inquiry have replaced the previous model-based estimates. The impact of these data revisions, when combined with revisions caused by seasonal adjustment factors being reestimated is to revise the growth rate for the Index of Production for April by +0.3% and May by +0.1%.

BACKGROUND NOTES

Access all tables mentioned in this release at: http://www.statistics.gov.uk/pdfdir/iop0805.pdf

1. This First Release gives details of the index of output of the production industries in the United Kingdom. Index numbers of output in this First Release are on the base 2002=100 and are classified to the 2003 revision to the Standard Industrial Classification (SIC). The production industries, which accounted for 20.1 per cent of gross domestic product in 2002, cover mining and quarrying (Section C), manufacturing (Section D) and electricity, gas and water supply (Section E).

Interpreting the data

2. The monthly IoP data can be volatile. When looking at growth rates, it is recommended that users focus on the percentage change between the latest three months and the previous three months.

Status of figures and planned future revisions

3. Figures for the most recent months are provisional and subject to revision in light of (a) late responses to the Monthly Production Inquiry and (b) revisions to seasonal adjustment factors which are re-estimated every period and subject to annual review in the spring. In the next release, which will contain figures for July 2005 and will be published on 6 September, the earliest period open for revisions according to the National Accounts policy will be January 2004.

Revisions

4. One indication of the reliability of the key indicators in this release can be obtained by monitoring the size of revisions. The table below is based on the revisions which have occurred over the last five years. Please note that these indicators only report summary measures for revisions. The revised data may, themselves, be subject to sampling or other sources of error.

The table below presents a summary of the differences between the first
estimates published between July 1999 and June 2004 and the estimates
published 12 months later.

Spreadsheets giving revisions triangles of estimates for all months from December 1997 through to the current month, and the calculations behind the averages in the above table, are available on the National Statistics website at: http://www.statistics.gov.uk/statbase/Product.asp?vlnk=6230

5. A statistical test has been applied to the average revisions to find out if they are statistically significantly different from zero. No such differences have been found.

6. The table uses historical data for the most recent 60 months, comparing the estimate at first publication with the estimate as published 12 months later. The numbers which underpin these averages will include normal changes due to late data and re-seasonal adjustment, but also significant methodological changes, the most recent of which occurred in October 2003 (see article "Index of Production redevelopment" in Economic Trends, October 2002).

Deflation

7. All series, unless otherwise quoted, are measured at constant market prices. Deflators adjust the value series to take out the effect of price changes to give The volume series.

Seasonal adjustment

8. The index numbers in this First Release are all seasonally adjusted. This aids interpretation by removing annually recurring fluctuations, for example, due to holidays or other regular seasonal patterns. Unadjusted data are also available.

Further information

9. The complete run of data in the tables of this First Release are also available to view and download in electronic format free of charge using the ONS Time Series Data service. Users can download the complete release in a choice of zipped formats, or view and download their own selections of individual series. The Time Series Data service can be accessed at: http://www.statistics.gov.uk/timeseries

ONS provides an analysis of past revisions in the IoP and other First Releases which present time series. Details can be found at: http://www.statistics.gov.uk/cci/article.asp?ID=793

ONS now publishes revisions triangles for all the main published key indicators on the National Statistics website. Details can be found at: http://www.statistics.gov.uk/cci/article.asp?ID=1026

In addition, the methodology for the Index of Production is now available on the National Statistics website. Details can be found at: http://www.statistics.gov.uk/cci/article.asp?ID=1111

Advance access

10. Details of the policy governing the release of new data are available from the press office. Also available is a list of those given pre-publication access to the contents of this release. Additionally, in light of the timing of this month's meeting of the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee, members of the committee have had pre-publication access.

Code of Practice

11. National Statistics are produced to high professional standards set out in the National Statistics Code of Practice. They undergo regular quality assurance reviews to ensure that they meet customer needs. They are produced free from any political interference. Crown copyright 2005.

5 August 2005

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National Statistics
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Internet
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Next publication date
6 September 2005



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