Fuente: © World Bank
http://www.worldbank.org

Trade Agreement Could Promote Development, But Specifics Will Determine Whether Potential Is Realized

/noticias.info/ WASHINGTON, December 8, 2005 - Negotiations to liberalize trade pose real challenges for developing countries. Good agreements can do much to promote development and poverty reduction, but good outcomes are not automatic. A new publication from the World Bank, Trade, Doha and Development – A Window into the Issues features essays on the key issues in making trade agreements work for development.

It provides short, fact-filled analyses of the main elements of the Doha Development Agenda, regional trade negotiations, and the “aid for trade” debate. “Particularly important in the upcoming negotiations in Hong Kong is progress towards real movement on agriculture and, specifically, market access,” said Uri Dadush, Director of the World Bank’s Trade Department, “because this holds the key that could unlock the development promise of the Doha Round. The poor live mainly in rural areas, and providing developing countries with access for their agricultural products to markets in rich countries and in other developing countries is essential to raising living standards. At present some of the proposals do not go far enough in slashing existing protection.”

The book presents an analysis of what is needed for developing countries to gain from a Doha package on agriculture, services and manufactures. “But even if developing countries succeed in obtaining access to new markets, not all of them will benefit,” says Richard Newfarmer, Economic Advisor in the Bank’s Trade Department, and editor of the book. “Some countries may suffer from rising food prices or reductions in preferential access. In other countries, lack of infrastructure or poorly functioning institutions may prevent firms from taking advantage of new opportunities. This is why additional development assistance in the form of aid for trade is necessary.”

Analysis in the book suggests that these negative effects will be limited to a relatively few countries. “The costs are in the millions of dollars, but the gains are in billions of dollars, so it makes no sense to hold the round hostage to these concerns,” concludes Carlos Primo Braga, the Bank’s Senior Advisor in Geneva and co-author of the preference erosion chapter. “For the countries suffering the losses, the effects could be important. For that reason, looking for trade and aid policy action to offset these effects is urgent.”

The book also analyzes key issues on the table at Hong Kong, including duty-free, quota free market access for least developed countries. “Agreement on this measure would be welcome” says Newfarmer, “but it cannot be a substitute for an ambitious multilateral liberalization that benefits all developing countries.” Most of the world’s poor do not live in the 50 least developed countries. Moreover, rules of origin or product exclusions in existing preferential programs have been so restrictive that they have undercut the purported benefits of preferences for the poorest countries. Dadush continued, “The real development impetus in the Doha Round is increased market access for all the world’s poor, wherever they live, including into the markets of other developing countries.”

A second front of developing countries’ trade negotiations are regional trade agreements. These include the EU’s Economic Partnership Agreements, the US Free Trade Agreements, and the numerous South-South agreements. These often include controversial provisions for protection of intellectual property rights, investment, and services. “Regional trade agreements, however useful, do not have the same power to lift people out of poverty as the Doha Round,” says Newfarmer, “but properly designed around low general tariffs, and non-restrictive rules of origin, and accompanied by appropriate regulations, can play a role.”

The book, also outlines the latest Bank's estimates of income gains from trade liberalization. It provides further analysis on the three pillars of agricultural trade, formula in the manufactures discussions, services, and trade facilitation, as well as selected aspects of regional trade agreements including intellectual property rights in US free trade agreements and the development aspects of the EU’s Economic Partnership Agreements. notas_de_prensa_archivo